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Weather Forecasting

One of the largest roles of a Meteorologist is weather forecasting. Weather forecasts involve making predictions about the weather and atmospheric conditions at some future time. To make these predictions, meteorologists consider several pieces of important information, such as the current weather and atmospheric conditions, and both short-term and long-term trends. There are several different methods one can use when forecasting. Some of them are unique to weather forecasting, and others - like those found in this book - can be used for forecasting any sort of future patterns or trends.

We will examine some of the most common forecasting methods unique to weather forecasting below:

Climatology

A climatology forecast is a forecast that the weather conditions will be representative of the climactic conditions for a given location. For example: If you were predicting the weather February 1st in Anchorage Alaska, you might predict that the mean daily temperature would be below freezing a high likelihood of snow. On the other hand, if you were predicting the weather for the same date in Australia, you might predict the main daily temperature to be much higher, These predictions would be based on the normal conditions for these regions during that time of year.

Climatology forecasts are more specific than this, however. It's common to take a 10 or 15 year average of the daily maximum, minimum, or mean temperatures for a given date, and to forecast this average as the predicted temperature. This type of climatology forecasts are excellent for predicting conditions on very long time scales.

The most famous source for climatology predictions are the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac, both of which make predictions for weather conditions and growing seasons many decades in advance.

Persistence

A persistence forecast is a forecast that the current weather conditions will remain exactly the same in the future.

Persistence forecasts are typically highly accurate on very short time scales. It's typically accurate to say, "It's raining now, so I can predict that it will be raining five minutes from now."

Persistence forecasts lose their accuracy, however, as the forecasting period increases. A similar statement of "It's raining now, so I can predict that it will be raining tomorrow" tends to be significantly less likely to be accurate. This forecasting method should not be used for forecasting periods of more than an hour or so.

Operational Forecasting

The accuracy of forecasts made by persistence can be extended for longer time periods by considering the current conditions and using them to predict future conditions based on known trends, rather than assuming conditions to remain exactly the same as present ones. For example: if there is a storm located to your east and your location has easterly winds, you can predict that your location will have stormy conditions in the coming hours or day. This type of prediction is the basis for operational forecasting.

Operational Weather Forecasting, sometimes also called Synoptic Forecasting involves examining the current weather conditions, thinking about physical and atmospheric phenomena, and using both of these sets of data to predict future weather.

The most widely-used source for obtaining this data is NCAR Real-Time Weather Data, operated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This site provides satellite imagery, surface and upper air maps, and radar.

There are several good textbooks on the topic, including Iness & Dorling's Operational Weather Forecasting book, available through Wiley publishing.

Dr John Gordon at the National Weather Service also maintains a fairly thorough listing of relevant research papers in Operational Forecasting.

Numerical Modeling

Because making operational forecasts can often require looking-at and considering many separate atmospheric conditions, a computer can be used to speed-up the process. When a computer makes predictions for the future weather, based-on coded models of the physical atmospheric phenomena, and a set of current weather conditions; this is called Numerical Modeling.

The most widely-used numerical weather prediction system available for public use for making forecasts for anywhere in the US is MOS (Model Output Statistics). An individual location of predictions in MOS would look something like this: MOS for Albertville Airport in Albertivlle, AL.

The NCAR site, referenced earlier, also has a section called "Forecasts," which displays the MOS predictions visually on a map and also allows you to plot specific data from MOS.

Verification and Forecast Accuracy

The last thing to consider when using any of these methods is that no forecast is ever perfect. The best one can hope for is a high degree of accuracy. There is an entire area of this discipline related to determining the accuracy of forecasters. The process of doing so is Forecast Verification. There are several methods for verification, just as there are several methods for forecasting, and many of them involve statistical analysis. Verification of some sort is performed at almost every weather forecasting entity - both public and private; although frequently the accuracy findings are not made publicly available.

To fulfill our tutoring mission of online education, our college homework help and online tutoring centers are standing by 24/7, ready to assist college students who need homework help with all aspects of weather forecasting. Our earth science tutors can help with all your projects, large or small, and we challenge you to find better online weather forecasting tutoring anywhere.

College Weather Forecasting Homework Help

Since we have tutors in all Weather Forecasting related topics, we can provide a range of different services. Our online Weather Forecasting tutors will:

Provide specific insight for homework assignments.
Review broad conceptual ideas and chapters.
Simplify complex topics into digestible pieces of information.
Answer any Weather Forecasting related questions.
Tailor instruction to fit your style of learning.

With these capabilities, our college Weather Forecasting tutors will give you the tools you need to gain a comprehensive knowledge of Weather Forecasting you can use in future courses.

24HourAnswers Online Weather Forecasting Tutors

Our tutors are just as dedicated to your success in class as you are, so they are available around the clock to assist you with questions, homework, exam preparation and any Weather Forecasting related assignments you need extra help completing.

In addition to gaining access to highly qualified tutors, you'll also strengthen your confidence level in the classroom when you work with us. This newfound confidence will allow you to apply your Weather Forecasting knowledge in future courses and keep your education progressing smoothly.

Because our college Weather Forecasting tutors are fully remote, seeking their help is easy. Rather than spend valuable time trying to find a local Weather Forecasting tutor you can trust, just call on our tutors whenever you need them without any conflicting schedules getting in the way.

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1 x eloquent.booted: App\Models\Twill\Slugs\TwillFaqSlug (0.01%)	50μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.submit-homework (0.01%)	44μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.subject-homework (0%)	23μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.how-it-works (0%)	21μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.reviews (0%)	21μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.faq (0%)	18μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.text-with-image (0%)	15μs
1 x composing: site.layouts.app (0%)	15μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.work-with-tutors (0%)	13μs
1 x composing: site.blocks.subject-tutors (0%)	12μs

29 templates were rendered

1x subjects.showshow.blade.phpblade
1x components.breadcrumbsbreadcrumbs.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.how-it-workshow-it-works.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.subject-tutorssubject-tutors.blade.phpblade
1x components.tutors-cardstutors-cards.blade.phpblade
1x components.tutors-cardtutors-card.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.subject-homeworksubject-homework.blade.phpblade
1x components.homework-blockshomework-blocks.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.reviewsreviews.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.submit-homeworksubmit-homework.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.faqfaq.blade.phpblade
4x components.faq-itemfaq-item.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.text-with-imagetext-with-image.blade.phpblade
1x site.blocks.work-with-tutorswork-with-tutors.blade.phpblade
1x site.layouts.appapp.blade.phpblade
1x components.canonicalcanonical.blade.phpblade
1x components.open-graphopen-graph.blade.phpblade
1x site.headers.headerheader.blade.phpblade
1x components.footerfooter.blade.phpblade
1x components.forms.contact-uscontact-us.blade.phpblade
1x components.forms.get-startedget-started.blade.phpblade
1x components.forms.free-tool-downloadfree-tool-download.blade.phpblade
1x components.forms.claim-free-worksheetclaim-free-worksheet.blade.phpblade
1x components.forms.tutor-subscription-waitlisttutor-subscription-waitlist.blade.phpblade
1x components.forms.tutor-subscription-jointutor-subscription-join.blade.phpblade
1x components.forms.tutor-supporttutor-support.blade.phpblade

uri: GET subjects/{categoryUri}/{subjectUri?}
middleware: web, utm.parameters
controller: App\Http\Controllers\SubjectController@show
namespace
where
as: subjects.show
file: app/Http/Controllers/SubjectController.php:43-96

25 statements were executed, 2 of which were duplicates, 23 unique. Show only duplicated240ms

Connection Establishedtwenty4_siteSubjectRepository.php#123

Backtrace

13. app/Repositories/SubjectRepository.php:123
14. app/Http/Controllers/SubjectController.php:54
15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260

select * from `subjects` where `urlFriendlyTitle` = 'Weather-Forecasting' limit 1

43.18mstwenty4_siteSubjectRepository.php#123

Bindings	0: Weather-Forecasting
Backtrace	15. app/Repositories/SubjectRepository.php:123 16. app/Http/Controllers/SubjectController.php:54 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` in (2)

9.86mstwenty4_siteSubjectRepository.php#123

Backtrace

20. app/Repositories/SubjectRepository.php:123
21. app/Http/Controllers/SubjectController.php:54
22. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
23. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
24. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` = 2 limit 1

1.54mstwenty4_siteSubject.php#100

Bindings	0: 2
Backtrace	18. app/Models/Subject.php:100 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/Repository.php:397 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/CacheManager.php:419 22. app/Models/Subject.php:101 28. app/Http/Controllers/SubjectController.php:86

select * from `meta` where `meta`.`id` = 3 limit 1

11.78mstwenty4_siteMetaService.php#118

Bindings	0: 3
Backtrace	19. app/Services/MetaService.php:118 20. app/Services/MetaService.php:108 21. app/Services/MetaService.php:81 22. app/Http/Controllers/SubjectController.php:89 23. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54

Connection Establishedtwenty4_siteTutorRepository.php#40

Backtrace

13. app/Repositories/TutorRepository.php:40
14. app/View/Components/TutorsCards.php:28
15. app/View/Components/TutorsCards.php:22
17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Container/Container.php:929
18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Container/Container.php:770

select count(*) as aggregate from `users` where (`subjectsQualified` like '%|412|%' or `DSF_subjectsQualified` like '%|412|%' or `allsubjects` = 1) and `disable_profile` = 0 and `picture` != '' and `solutionrequestQualified` = 1 and `is_suspended` = 0 and `is_deactivated` = 0 and `status` != '' and `status` = 'tutor'

44.7mstwenty4_siteTutorsCards.php#35

Bindings	0: %\|412\|% 1: %\|412\|% 2: 1 3: 0 4: 5: 1 6: 0 7: 0 8: 9: tutor
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/TutorsCards.php:35 16. app/View/Components/TutorsCards.php:22 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Container/Container.php:929 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Container/Container.php:770 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Application.php:933

select * from `users` where (`subjectsQualified` like '%|412|%' or `DSF_subjectsQualified` like '%|412|%' or `allsubjects` = 1) and `disable_profile` = 0 and `picture` != '' and `solutionrequestQualified` = 1 and `is_suspended` = 0 and `is_deactivated` = 0 and `status` != '' and `status` = 'tutor' order by `completed_requests` desc limit 6 offset 0

29.27mstwenty4_siteTutorsCards.php#35

Bindings	0: %\|412\|% 1: %\|412\|% 2: 1 3: 0 4: 5: 1 6: 0 7: 0 8: 9: tutor
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/TutorsCards.php:35 16. app/View/Components/TutorsCards.php:22 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Container/Container.php:929 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Container/Container.php:770 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Foundation/Application.php:933

select * from `tutor_degrees` where `tutor_degrees`.`tutor_id` = 179558 and `tutor_degrees`.`tutor_id` is not null order by `year` desc limit 1

14.18mstwenty4_siteTutor.php#361

Bindings	0: 179558
Backtrace	18. app/Models/User/Tutor.php:361 19. view::components.tutors-card:11 21. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110 22. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58 23. vendor/livewire/livewire/src/ComponentConcerns/RendersLivewireComponents.php:69

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` = 1 limit 1

15.6mstwenty4_siteSubject.php#100

Bindings	0: 1
Backtrace	18. app/Models/Subject.php:100 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/Repository.php:397 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/CacheManager.php:419 22. app/Models/Subject.php:101 34. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` = 35 limit 1

2.07mstwenty4_siteSubject.php#100

Bindings	0: 35
Backtrace	18. app/Models/Subject.php:100 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/Repository.php:397 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/CacheManager.php:419 22. app/Models/Subject.php:101 34. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` = 36 limit 1

5.32mstwenty4_siteSubject.php#100

Bindings	0: 36
Backtrace	18. app/Models/Subject.php:100 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/Repository.php:397 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/CacheManager.php:419 22. app/Models/Subject.php:101 34. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` = 34 limit 1

3.46mstwenty4_siteSubject.php#100

Bindings	0: 34
Backtrace	18. app/Models/Subject.php:100 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/Repository.php:397 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/CacheManager.php:419 22. app/Models/Subject.php:101 34. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` = 11 limit 1

6.04mstwenty4_siteSubject.php#100

Bindings	0: 11
Backtrace	18. app/Models/Subject.php:100 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/Repository.php:397 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/CacheManager.php:419 22. app/Models/Subject.php:101 34. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` = 32 limit 1

19.11mstwenty4_siteSubject.php#100

Bindings	0: 32
Backtrace	18. app/Models/Subject.php:100 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/Repository.php:397 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Cache/CacheManager.php:419 22. app/Models/Subject.php:101 34. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110

select count(*) as aggregate from `solutionslibrary` where exists (select * from `subjects` where `solutionslibrary`.`subject` = `subjects`.`id`) and `subject` = 412 and `status` = 'published' and `price` > 0

990μstwenty4_siteHomeworkBlocks.php#27

Bindings	0: 412 1: published 2: 0
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/HomeworkBlocks.php:27 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102 17. view::site.blocks.subject-homework:4 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `solutionslibrary` where exists (select * from `subjects` where `solutionslibrary`.`subject` = `subjects`.`id`) and `subject` = 412 and `status` = 'published' and `price` > 0 order by `purchase_count` desc limit 6 offset 0

18.25mstwenty4_siteHomeworkBlocks.php#27

Bindings	0: 412 1: published 2: 0
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/HomeworkBlocks.php:27 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102 17. view::site.blocks.subject-homework:4 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `subjects` where `subjects`.`id` in (412)

2.95mstwenty4_siteHomeworkBlocks.php#27

Backtrace

20. app/View/Components/HomeworkBlocks.php:27
21. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102
22. view::site.blocks.subject-homework:4
24. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110
25. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `subject_cats` where `subject_cats`.`id` in (2)

3.68mstwenty4_siteHomeworkBlocks.php#27

Backtrace

25. app/View/Components/HomeworkBlocks.php:27
26. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102
27. view::site.blocks.subject-homework:4
29. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110
30. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faqs` where exists (select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faqs`.`id` = `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` and `slug` = 'can-you-help-me-with-my-homework-in-less-than-24-hours' and `active` = 1 and `locale` = 'en' and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null) and `twill_faqs`.`deleted_at` is null limit 1

1.01mstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Bindings	0: can-you-help-me-with-my-homework-in-less-than-24-hours 1: 1 2: en
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102 17. view::site.blocks.faq:7 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` in (1) and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null

960μstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Backtrace

20. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15
21. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102
22. view::site.blocks.faq:7
24. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110
25. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faqs` where exists (select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faqs`.`id` = `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` and `slug` = 'can-you-help-me-with-my-examquiztest' and `active` = 1 and `locale` = 'en' and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null) and `twill_faqs`.`deleted_at` is null limit 1

960μstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Bindings	0: can-you-help-me-with-my-examquiztest 1: 1 2: en
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102 17. view::site.blocks.faq:24 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` in (2) and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null

860μstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Backtrace

20. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15
21. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102
22. view::site.blocks.faq:24
24. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110
25. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faqs` where exists (select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faqs`.`id` = `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` and `slug` = 'how-much-will-it-cost' and `active` = 1 and `locale` = 'en' and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null) and `twill_faqs`.`deleted_at` is null limit 1

1.06mstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Bindings	0: how-much-will-it-cost 1: 1 2: en
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102 17. view::site.blocks.faq:41 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` in (3) and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null

890μstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Backtrace

20. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15
21. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102
22. view::site.blocks.faq:41
24. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110
25. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faqs` where exists (select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faqs`.`id` = `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` and `slug` = 'what-kind-of-payments-do-you-accept' and `active` = 1 and `locale` = 'en' and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null) and `twill_faqs`.`deleted_at` is null limit 1

1.12mstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Bindings	0: what-kind-of-payments-do-you-accept 1: 1 2: en
Backtrace	15. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102 17. view::site.blocks.faq:58 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

select * from `twill_faq_slugs` where `twill_faq_slugs`.`twill_faq_id` in (4) and `twill_faq_slugs`.`deleted_at` is null

950μstwenty4_siteFaqItem.php#15

Backtrace

20. app/View/Components/FaqItem.php:15
21. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Component.php:102
22. view::site.blocks.faq:58
24. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:110
25. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58

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App\Models\Twill\Slugs\TwillFaqSlug: 6TwillFaqSlug.php
App\Models\Twill\TwillFaq: 4TwillFaq.php
App\Models\Subject: 2Subject.php
App\Models\Meta: 1Meta.php
App\Models\User\Tutor: 1Tutor.php
App\Models\HomeworkLibrary\HomeworkLibrary: 1HomeworkLibrary.php

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